Temperature and Precipitation in Canada: nails, coffins and data

To put the final nail in the coffin of the “increased heat is causing precipitation” nonsense I present observations of Canada from 2010.

You can see above that there is no correlation between warm areas and wetter areas.  What you do see is above average and below average precipitation in areas of average temperature, above average and below average temperatures.  Curiously, according to Environment Canada, the area with the highest precipitation anomaly (Saskatchewan) occurred where temperature was most “normal.”  You can see with your own eyes that the news reports I’ve been highlighting, are clearly wrong when they suggest that “global warming” is causing unusual precipitation events.

Of further  interest is the graph on the left which looks like Canada is boiling.  Environment Canada has averaged out the anomalies over the whole year which is rather misleading.  In fact, that 4 degree increase occurred only during the winter months not the summer so instead of it being -35 on Baffin Island, it was -31.  Hardly red-hot as the graphic implies!  Like much of the misinformation out there, context is withheld to create an emotional argument.  Here is what Baffin Island, at the centre of the hot lava graph, looks like today as it endures an extra 3.5 degrees of warmth:There is nothing catastrophic about the weather in Baffin Island unless you are worried about freezing to death.  There is nothing even warm about it.  Technically, it’s not even winter yet, when the “warmest” anomaly occurs!

Well, enough weather deconstruction.  I’m off today doing mineral exploration for a month in weather that I hope will be more generous to me that it is to Canada’s “hot spot” Baffin Island!




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2 Responses to Temperature and Precipitation in Canada: nails, coffins and data

  1. geof says:

    Been thinking about this a bit, as it seems like an interesting piece. But something was nagging at me. So, here is what is nagging me..

    This analysis (of “increased heat is causing [increased] precipitation”) seems to assume that it is the heat that causes the rain to fall. Am I right in assuming that? Because I’m pretty sure that whatever else the climate boffins are going on about, this isn’t it.

    I think they are saying that increased heat causes increased evaporation, and this combined with “what goes up must come down” naturally leads to the conclusion that it must rain more in a warmer world.

    I don’t think you disagree with the ideas that: 1. warmer air holds more water vapour; and 2. evaporation occurs more rapidly in a hot environment. In SK, most of our rain comes from either the Pacific or the Gulf of Mexico. It seems to me that the heat anomalies you would want to look at would be in those places, for a rough and dirty look-see.

    There are other issues I have, but they only really address some of your more trivial points (as an example, I’m not sure what colour you’d want warm anomaly data to be if not yellow-red). Also, it seems like you may be wanting to do a trend analysis of global warming/precipitation, but I’m probably mistaken about that since you’ve only got 2% of the earth’s surface area and only 1 year of data.

    And we agree on things! 10 degrees warmer than damn cold is still really damn cold.

  2. geof says:

    Well, since I’m reading these in reverse order, I hadn’t read the post 3 or 4 back where you talk about increased temps not leading to an increase in evaporation. Which will take some more thinking about.
    In the interim, I’ll merely point out that it does precipitate more in Summer than Winter, and by quite a lot, and that we have both been in temperatures where it was “too cold to snow”.
    Secondly, absolute humidity has been measured to have increased by 4% over the last 30 years.

    And oh ho!, something which I just saw, but wished I’d known you wrote the entire time I’ve been writing — you have already written something that refutes this entire post! In Why it Snows, you wrote:
    “In other words, precipitation is caused by cold air, not warm. If you think about it, this explains why it doesn’t always rain when the air gets hot.”
    So, I’m confused as to why you even wanted to do the graphical comparison that started this post.

    But I do appreciate that you get me thinking about all this. 🙂

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