Northern Hemisphere in the grip of WarmCold

Screen shot 2013-01-24 at 12.39.00 PM

 

I came across this clip of chief CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.  He’s trying to explain why it’s so cold in North America in spite of people’s belief in global warming.  The short clip is here but I’ll transcribe it to save you the time:

“What about global warming? (the N American cold weather) is caused by the fact that there is no ice at the north pole.  The jet stream has dropped on down.  The cold weather ice caused by a lack of ice.”

The implication here is that global warming has caused less ice which somehow pushes the jet stream south forcing cold air south.  Well, lets se if he’s right.

Lets start with the claim of a lack of ice.  Satellite data as always, is just a click away!N_bm_extent

As it turns out, there is plenty of ice and Myers is caught in a lie or massive ignorance, take your pick.  The orange line is the average extent for the satellite era.  Normal ice everywhere except the Barents Sea which is  below average for this time of year.  I wonder why this spot of open water didn’t cause frigid temperatures when it was open last month or last year!?

What effect does this tiny spot have on Arctic temperature and pressures?  Zero. sfctmp_01.fnl

Above source is here

As the above temperature data shows, that tiny spot of open water is irrelevant. Not only that but unless -30 is pleasant to you, there is nothing “warm” about the arctic this week!

The actual reason it’s so cold this week is due to the Arctic oscillation, a set oscillating air pressures in the central Arctic.  In the so-called “negative phase” higher than average pressures in the Arctic and lower than average pressure at lower latitudes, allows for greater influx of polar air to southern latitudes.  The Arctic oscillation is well-known to real meteorologists and is closely monitored.  This is why the jet stream is positioned where it is, because it marks the boundary between the pressure differences.

ao.sprd2

source here

As you can see from above, the negative phase began sharply this week.  Also useful to note is the Christmas cold snap that hit N America was during the last  negative phase.  For clarity, the top of the four charts is the observed pressure, the others are the forecasted pressures.

It’s cold now because periodic, high Arctic pressure forces cold air south.  Just like it’s happened for thousands and thousands and thousands of years.

Let me return to clueless Chad Meyers.  Unfrozen, open water is warmer than ice.  It gives off radiation and warms the air slightly. That warmer air rises to create local low pressure not high pressure.  So even if there were enough open water to have an extra-local effect, it has the exact opposite claimed effect of moving the jet stream further north not further south!  In any case, there has been no warming at all for going on 16 years which is worth repeating in the hope that activists like Myers will eventually look at some real data and notice.  Perhaps then they will stop making stuff up.  As I have shown, the current cold weather has nothing to do with any longterm climate changes but rather is just regular weather with well understood causes.  RSS 1997 2012 trend

Above, the inconvenient satellite temperature data that is ignored by people claiming the cold weather is caused by global warming.

 

It is unfortunate that someone pretending to be an expert in weather would go on a national broadcast and just make up nonsense that can be disproven by 5 minutes of internet time hunting down actual mechanisms and data.

What hope does the laymen have in understanding the world around him when charlatans leverage credentials and notoriety to lie?

 

 

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2 Responses to Northern Hemisphere in the grip of WarmCold

  1. fadedearth says:

    Even under the best of circumstances, what you get from a TV personality is nothing more than the hazy shadow of science. & this black century is far from “the best of circumstances”.

    Thanks for keeping us up to date, Dr.

  2. Caleb says:

    I think it might be interesting to figure out the effect the warm AMO’s creation of less-than-average ice north of Scandanavia might have. Of course it must have some effect, as even a butterfly flapping its wing has some effect. However I feel leaping to the politically-correct conclusion (that “Global Warming” must be the cause of EVERYTHING) gets in the way of discovering the true causes and the true effects. That is why I get grumpy at times, when I comment on WUWT.

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